Will Mark Grace make the Baseball Hall of Fame or will he fall short? It’s a question many pondered as Mark’s career drew to its conclusion. Without question, Mark put together an impressive resume of hitting and fielding statistics during his 16-year career in the big leagues. But is it HOF caliber? Let’s first look at his accomplishments and then how they stack up to the current HOF inductees that played his position of first base.

There are 18 first baseman currently enshrined in the HOF. Of them, nine were voted in by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA), and nine were inducted by the HOF's Veterans Committee. Let’s put them on a chart with their career statistics displayed.

Now, let’s establish separate averages for all inductees, Veterans Committee inductees, and BBWAA inductees.

We can now compare Mark’s career statistics to the averages. Let’s highlight the categories in which Mark’s statistics exceed the average.

As we can see, out of the nine categories surveyed, Mark’s statistics are better than the average in five out of the nine compared to all inductees. They are better in six of the nine when compared to Veterans Committee inductees, but only three of the nine for BBWAA inductees.

Mark will become eligible for Hall of Fame voting five years after his retirement. He then has 15 years to be voted in by the BBWAA, and must be listed on 75% of cast ballots to be inducted. If he fails to be listed on at least 5% of ballots at any vote, his name will be dropped from future consideration. If after 15 years he has remained on the ballot but not been elected, he must wait another 3 years before being considered by the HOF's Veterans Committee.

In analyzing the statistical comparison to current inductees, it seems unlikely that Mark will be elected to the HOF by the BBWAA, as his statistics are below the average in six of the nine categories surveyed. More importantly, he is below average in the categories that carry the most weight, including AVG, HR, R, and RBI. If Grace is not elected by the BBWAA, his HOF chances would rest on the shoulders of a vote by a Veterans Committee, and the soonest he could be elected would be a full 23 years after his retirement.

At first glance, it may appear that Grace compares favorably to HOF inductees at his position. He definitely stacks up against Veterans Committee inductees statistically, but other factors must be considered. Most of the players elected by the Veterans Committee played in the late 1800’s and early 1900’s. Many were “deadball era” players. Grace compares favorably to these players because he hits for average, not power. However, in today’s game, Grace’s power numbers are well below HOF standards. A Veterans Committee looking back at Mark’s career will compare it to the careers of his contemporaries, not players from the early 1900’s. Therefore, the bar will be raised, and Grace will likely not meet the cut on several categories.

There is another unique argument that is often tossed about regarding Mark’s HOF potential. This is the case of the “Decade Hit Leader.” As it is well known, Mark led the major leagues in hits during the decade of the 1990’s. All other 20th century decade hit leaders have been elected to the Hall of Fame, with the exception of Pete Rose, who was banned from HOF eligibility. This argument is not a logical one, however. No ten year period is any more important than another, so 1990-1999 is no more important than 1985-1994 for example. Not every leader in hits during a ten-year period is guaranteed into the HOF, nor should they be. Besides, HOF induction is based on a player’s career, not a subsection of it. Of course leading a decade in hits would necessitate a player being good over a sizable amount of time, which makes it more likely for that player to be elected to the hall. In no way, however, is it a “free pass” into Cooperstown.

Other intangibles may weigh negatively on the minds of HOF voters when considering Grace's credentials. Many voters feel a HOF worthy candidate must have been the dominant player at his position during the majority of his career. Mark doesn't really fit this description. During his career, Grace was overshadowed at first base by Will Clark, Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff, and Mark McGwire. Most voters will be convinced that he was never even the most dominant player on his own team, playing second fiddle to Ryne Sandberg then Sammy Sosa during his best years. Voters also look at individual honors, such as awards. Mark was elected a National League All-Star three times, but never as the fan-favorite to start the game at first base. His four gold gloves are impressive, but during their overlapping NL careers, J.T. Snow also had four at first. Grace has never finished in the top 10 of NL MVP balloting, and has appeared in the post-season only three times, although he did win a World Championship in 2001.

All in all, it is highly doubtful Mark Grace will be elected into the Hall of Fame based solely on his career as a player. One must remember that HOF induction is a very select honor. Of all the players to ever take the field, only 193 major leaguers have been enshrined through 2004. Mark will likely receive a handful of votes when he is first put on the ballot, but nowhere near the necessary 75% needed to be elected. It will be a small victory if he receives the necessary 5% to be relisted year-to-year. Diehard fans can hold out a slim hope that sometime down the road, a Veterans Committee may enshrine him. There is also the possibility that, as is his intention, Grace will both broadcast and manage once his playing days are over. If he is successful in these ventures, he could possibly be elected to the Hall for his overall contributions to the sport. Those are long odds, however, and in the end Grace may only be a Hall of Famer in the heart of his fans.

Mark Grace's Virtual Hall of Fame Plaque

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